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Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrat. Inflation Finance. Enflasyon Finans. Rational expectations Economic theory.

Rational expectations hypothesis (ECO)

That bailout may have created unwarranted expectations about future federal bailouts that a costly episode in the early s corrected. Aspects of these early U. This paper studies market prices of risk in an economy with two types of agents with diverse beliefs. The paper studies both a complete markets economy and a risk-free bonds only Bewley economy.

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We study an economy in which two types of agents have diverse beliefs about the law of motion for an exogenous endowment. Financial markets are incomplete, the only traded asset being a risk-free bond. Borrowing limits are imposed to ensure the existence of an equilibrium. We analyze how financial-market structure affects the distribution of financial wealth and survival of the two agents. When markets are complete, the learning agent loses wealth during the learning transition and eventually exits the economy Blume and Easley In contrast, in a bond-only economy, the learning agent accumulates wealth, and both agents survive asymptotically, with the knowledgeable agent being driven to his debt limit.

The absence of markets for certain Arrow securities is central to reversing the direction in which wealth is transferred. The same high labor supply elasticity that characterizes a representative family model with indivisible labor and employment lotteries can also emerge without lotteries when self-insuring individuals choose career lengths. Off corners, the more elastic the earnings profile is to accumulated working time, the longer is a worker's career. Negative positive unanticipated earnings shocks reduce increase the career length of a worker holding positive assets at the time of the shock, while the effects are the opposite for a worker with negative assets.

Rational Expectations and Inflation | Princeton University Press

By inducing a worker to retire at an official retirement age, government provided social security can attenuate responses of career lengths to earnings profile slopes, earnings shocks, and taxes. Until recently, an insurmountable gulf separated a high labor supply elasticity macro camp from a low labor supply elasticity micro camp was fortified by a contentious aggregation theory formerly embraced by real business cycle theorists.

The repudiation of that aggregation theory in favor of one more genial to microeconomic observations opens possibilities for an accord about the aggregate labor supply elasticity. The new aggregation theory drops features to which empirical microeconomists objected and replaces them with life-cycle choices that microeconomists have long emphasized. Whether the new aggregation theory ultimately indicates a small or large macro labor supply elasticity will depend on how shocks and government institutions interact to determine whether workers choose to be at interior solutions for career length.

A planner is compelled to raise a prescribed present value of revenues by levying a distorting tax on the output of a representative firm that faces adjustment costs and resides within a rational expectations equilibrium. We describe recursive representations both for a Ramsey plan and for a set of credible plans.

Continuations of Ramsey plans are not Ramsey plans. Continuations of credible plans are credible plans.


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As they are often constructed, continuations of optimal inflation target paths are not optimal inflation target paths. Matlab files. What kinds of assets should financial intermediaries be permitted to hold and what kinds of liabilities should they be allowed to issue? This paper reviews how tensions involving stability versus efficiency and regulation versus laissez faire have for centuries run through macroeconomic analysis of these questions.

The paper also discusses how two leading models raise questions of whether deposit insurance is a good or bad arrangement. Bhandari, F. Barillas, R. Colacito, S. Kitao, C. Matthes, and Y. This paper teaches Dynare by applying it to approximate equilibria and estimate nine dynamic economic models. The examples. Source Code. This paper uses the sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of interest payments on the U. Federal government debt.

We explain why our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from those reported by the U. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt to GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities. This paper modifies a Townsend turnpike model by letting agents stay at a location long enough to trade some consumption loans, but not long enough to support a Pareto optimal allocation.

Monetary equilibria exist that are non-optimal in the absence of a scheme to pay interest on currency at a particular rate. Paying interest on currency at the optimal rate delivers a Pareto optimal allocation, but a different one than the allocation for an associated nonmonetary centralized economy.

The price level remains determinate under an optimal policy. A standard timing protocol allows in a cash-in-advance model allows the government to elude the inflation tax. That matters. Altering the timing of tax collections to make the government hold cash overnight disables some classical propositions but enables others. The altered timing protocol loses a Ricardian proposition and also the proposition that open market operations, accompanied by tax adjustments needed to finance the change in interest on bonds due the public, are equivalent with pure units changes.

Rational Expectations and Inflation (Third Edition)

The altered timing enables a Modigliani-Miller equivalence proposition that does not otherwise prevail. This paper is my AEA presidential address. It discusses the relationship between two sources of ideas that influence monetary policy makers today. The second is a long trial and error learning process that constrained government budgets and anchored the price level with a gold standard, then relaxed government budgets by replacing the gold standard with a fiat currency system wanting nominal anchors.

Models of out-of-equilibrium learning tell us that such an evolutionary process will converge to a self-confirming equilibrium SCE. In an SCE, a government's probability model is correct about events that occur under the prevailing government policy, but possibly wrong about the consequences of other policies. That leaves room for more mistakes and useful experiments than exist in a rational expectations equilibrium.

This paper is about the consequences that using fiscal policy to bail out banks can have for inflation rates. It is a case study of a bail out of banks in Israel in A general equilibrium search model makes layoff costs affect the aggregate unemployment rate in ways that depend on equilibrium proportions of frictional and structural unemployment that in turn depend on the generosity of government unemployment benefits and skill losses among newly displaced workers.

The model explains how, before the s, lower flows into unemployment gave Europe lower unemployment rates than the United States; and also how, after , higher durations have kept unemployment rates in Europe persistently higher than in the U. These outcomes arise from the way Europe's higher firing costs and more generous unemployment compensation make its unemployment rate respond to bigger skill losses among newly displaced workers.

What is new and important is his explicit use of the terminology and constructs of the theory of rational expectations. That terminology and those constructs clearly offer an illuminating way to analyze these complex events. Whether you agree or disagree with Sargent's interpretation of specific historical episodes, you will get a better understanding of both the theory of rational expectations and the interrelations of monetary and fiscal policy from this imaginative, analytically subtle, and lucidly written book.

Are the United States and Europe headed toward inflation with our large and intractable deficits?

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Will the European currency union survive? The breakthrough theoretical insights and brilliant case studies in this book are still the foundations that anyone thinking about these questions needs to read, and then to read again. Cochrane, author of Asset Pricing.